PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
42-42 | Road
11
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
47-37 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aaron Nola
#27 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braxton Ashcraft | 7-3 | 3.33 | 1.09 | 6.0 | 8 |
| Aaron Nola | 3-4 | 6.04 | 1.45 | 4.1 | 5 |
7-3
W-L
3-4
3.33 Ldr
ERA
6.04
1.09 Ldr
WHIP
1.45
6.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
4.1
8 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
5
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
40%
PHILLIES
60%
PIRATES
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
58%
Under 0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PIT By 1-2 runs
16.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
10.6%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
4.4
PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia
5.4
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
7
PITTSBURGH
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Pirates
Win
83% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Phillies (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Sim
Pirates (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
C
Sim
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 12.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 2, 2026
PIT @ PHI
6 - 1
Jul 1, 2026
PIT @ PHI
6 - 10
Jun 30, 2026
PIT @ PHI
0 - 8
Jun 29, 2026
PIT @ PHI
11 - 7
May 17, 2026
PHI @ PIT
6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.734
▲
OPS
.724
186
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+30.9% more
Philadelphia: 4.6
vs
Pittsburgh: 3.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+13.3% more
Philadelphia: 9.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 8.7
Slugging Pct (Season)
+3.4%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Pittsburgh: 40.4%
Home Runs (Season)
+98.4% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
4.4
11
PHI Score
5.4
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 1.0
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 10.5
9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 2.6
4.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
9.8 / 8.7
13.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
14.2 / 19.9
21.0 / 24.0
Walks
4.6 / 3.5
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
PIT
PHI
PIT
ML
59%
97-67
52%
82-77
49%
80-84
52%
85-78
ATS
65%
107-57
54%
86-73
51%
83-81
50%
81-82
TTL
57%
88-67-9
47%
72-81-6
51%
78-76-9
50%
79-78-6
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