CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
43-39 | Road
8
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
39-46 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Burke
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Shane Baz
#34 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Burke | 5-4 | 3.69 | 1.21 | 5.1 | 8 |
| Shane Baz | 4-8 | 4.19 | 1.38 | 7.0 | 6 |
5-4
W-L
4-8
3.69 Ldr
ERA
4.19
1.21 Ldr
WHIP
1.38
5.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
8 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
6
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
48%
ORIOLES
52%
WHITE SOX
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
46%
Under 0
54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
CHW By 1-2 runs
18.1%
CHW By 3-4 runs
13.0%
BAL By 1-2 runs
18.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
14.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.4
CHICAGO
Baltimore
4.6
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
92% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Sim
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
CHW @ BAL
1 - 6
Jun 30, 2026
CHW @ BAL
9 - 3
Jun 29, 2026
CHW @ BAL
8 - 2
Apr 8, 2026
BAL @ CHW
5 - 3
Apr 7, 2026
BAL @ CHW
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Baltimore
BAL
1
Games Played
▲
161
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.412
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.826
▲
OPS
.711
1
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+19800.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+69.0% more
Baltimore: 1.3
vs
Chicago: 0.6
Walks (L5)
+14.0% more
Baltimore: 3.5
vs
Chicago: 3.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+8.7% more
Baltimore: 10.0
vs
Chicago: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
4.4
8
BAL Score
4.6
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.3 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.8 / 10.1
4.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.5
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 9.2
8.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
11.4 / 15.8
5.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.1
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
CHW
BAL
CHW
ML
53%
83-73
49%
81-86
57%
90-69
56%
94-73
ATS
61%
95-60-1
59%
99-68
57%
90-68-1
56%
93-74
TTL
54%
81-70-5
58%
96-69-2
51%
78-75-6
51%
84-81-2
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