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NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

48-34  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Jun 28 • 7:20 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

35-46  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Paul Blackburn
STARTING PITCHER

Paul Blackburn

#58 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sonny Gray
STARTING PITCHER

Sonny Gray

#54 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Paul Blackburn None-None 2.50 -- 2.0 1
Sonny Gray 9-1 2.69 1.19 7.1 9
None-None W-L 9-1
2.50 Ldr ERA 2.69
-- WHIP 1.19
2.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.1
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
57%
📊
RED SOX
43%
YANKEES --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 62%
Under 0 38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.7
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

43.1%

Red Sox Cover

56.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS +0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.4%

NYY By 3-4 runs

15.5%

BOS By 1-2 runs

17.0%

BOS By 3-4 runs

11.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5
NEW YORK
4.3
BOSTON
Simulated Score
5
NEW YORK
6
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Yankees Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Win
67% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Red Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.7
A
Sim Yankees (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.3
B
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 BOS @ NYY 2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026 BOS @ NYY 0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026 BOS @ NYY 1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026 BOS @ NYY 6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026 BOS @ NYY 0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Boston BOS
1
Games Played
▲ 2
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
1.041 ▲
OPS
.409
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +88.9% more
New York: 9.0 vs Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season) +63.2%
New York: 1.0% vs Boston: 40.9%
Errors (L5) +58.0% more
New York: 0.9 vs Boston: 0.3
Slugging Pct (Season) +34.4%
New York: 59.4% vs Boston: 25.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 5.0 4
BOS Score 4.3 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.9 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.0 / 5.1 6.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 7.6 12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 14.7 / 9.1 7.0 / 3.0
Walks 2.4 / 2.9 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
NYY
BOS
NYY
ML
50% 80-80
47% 76-85
47% 76-87
52% 85-77
ATS
58% 93-67
59% 95-66
48% 79-84
53% 86-76
TTL
46% 72-83-5
53% 81-73-7
47% 74-83-6
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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