Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Padres LAD @ SD

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

53-30  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sun, Jun 28 • 4:10 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

43-38  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Emmet Sheehan
STARTING PITCHER

Emmet Sheehan

#80 | Starting Pitcher
@
Michael King
STARTING PITCHER

Michael King

#34 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Emmet Sheehan 3-5 5.08 1.30 5.0 5
Michael King 5-6 3.55 1.16 4.1 5
3-5 W-L 5-6
5.08 ERA Ldr 3.55
1.30 WHIP Ldr 1.16
5.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 4.1
5 K (Strikeouts) 5
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
51%
📊
PADRES
49%
DODGERS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 64%
Under 0 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

48.0%

Padres Cover

52.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD +0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

18.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

14.1%

SD By 1-2 runs

18.1%

SD By 3-4 runs

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.8
LOS ANGELES
4.6
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
2
LOS ANGELES
4
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Dodgers Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Loss
83% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Padres (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +0.2
B
Sim Padres (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.4
B
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 SD @ LAD 4 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 7
Jul 5, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 2
Jul 4, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.94
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.257
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.338
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.424
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.762
OPS
▲ .925
204 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +41.8% more
Los Angeles: 1.7 vs San Diego: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +37.8% more
Los Angeles: 20.4 vs San Diego: 12.7
Hits (L5) +33.2% more
Los Angeles: 11.9 vs San Diego: 7.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 4.8 4
SD Score 4.6 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.9 / 11.9 6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.7 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 7.0 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 12.7 / 20.4 10.0 / 5.0
Walks 3.8 / 4.9 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
68%MONEY32%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
LAD
SD
LAD
ML
51% 85-83
56% 92-73
51% 85-82
48% 79-87
ATS
54% 91-77
59% 98-67
55% 92-75
43% 72-94
TTL
51% 82-80-6
48% 77-82-6
54% 86-74-6
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 34 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 42 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 45 minutes ago
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 52 minutes ago
Brewers vs. Dodgers NLCS Tickets: Prices, Schedule, and How to A…
sportingnews 6 hours, 42 minutes ago