Home / MLB Projections MLB / Braves @ Giants ATL @ SF

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

49-32  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Jun 28 • 4:05 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

34-48  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Chris Sale
STARTING PITCHER

Chris Sale

#51 | Starting Pitcher
@
Drew Gilbert
STARTING PITCHER

Drew Gilbert

#0 | Center Field
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Chris Sale 8-5 2.10 1.05 6.0 10
Drew Gilbert None-None -- -- -- --
8-5 W-L None-None
2.10 ERA --
1.05 WHIP --
6.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
10 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
49%
📊
GIANTS
51%
BRAVES --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 68%
Under 0 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (San Francisco)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

49.0%

Giants Cover

51.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

ATL By 1-2 runs

18.3%

ATL By 3-4 runs

13.3%

SF By 1-2 runs

18.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

13.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.6
ATLANTA
4.7
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
4
ATLANTA
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
67% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
A
Sim Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.3
A
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 31, 2026 SF @ ATL 7 - 3
Jun 28, 2026 ATL @ SF 2 - 3
Jun 27, 2026 ATL @ SF 0 - 5
Jun 26, 2026 ATL @ SF 3 - 1
Jun 17, 2026 SF @ ATL 7 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
San Francisco SF
1
Games Played
▲ 162
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.757 ▲
OPS
.706
1
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +17700.0% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +97.0% more
San Francisco: 1.4 vs Atlanta: 0.4
Errors (L5) +78.0% more
San Francisco: 1.1 vs Atlanta: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +64.0% more
San Francisco: 12.6 vs Atlanta: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 4.6 2
SF Score 4.7 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.3 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 6.5 / 5.3 10.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 7.4 3.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 12.6 / 7.7 11.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.9 / 3.3 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
ATL
SF
ATL
ML
49% 79-81
46% 77-90
53% 85-75
54% 90-78
ATS
62% 100-60
57% 96-71
52% 83-77
52% 87-81
TTL
55% 82-68-10
53% 83-73-11
46% 68-81-11
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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