MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
44-39 | Road
1
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
42-38 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Phillips
#30 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Riley O'Brien
#61 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Phillips | 1-2 | 3.02 | 1.37 | 7.1 | 1 |
| Riley O'Brien | None-None | 3.93 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
1-2
W-L
None-None
3.02 Ldr
ERA
3.93
1.37
WHIP
--
7.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
53%
CARDINALS
48%
MARLINS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
42%
Under 0
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.3
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL +0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
MIA By 1-2 runs
18.9%
MIA By 3-4 runs
14.4%
STL By 1-2 runs
17.9%
STL By 3-4 runs
12.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4.2
MIAMI
St. Louis
3.9
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
83% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.3
A
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
C
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
MIA @ STL
1 - 2
Jun 27, 2026
MIA @ STL
5 - 1
Jun 26, 2026
MIA @ STL
4 - 0
Apr 22, 2026
STL @ MIA
1 - 4
Apr 21, 2026
STL @ MIA
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.727
▲
OPS
.691
168
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+35.5% more
Miami: 14.2
vs
St. Louis: 9.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+34.9% more
Miami: 7.9
vs
St. Louis: 5.2
Home Runs (L5)
+29.0% more
Miami: 0.6
vs
St. Louis: 0.4
Hits (L5)
+28.5% more
Miami: 9.6
vs
St. Louis: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.2
1
STL Score
3.9
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.8 / 9.6
6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.2 / 7.9
9.0 / 2.0
Total Bases
9.2 / 14.2
9.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.5 / 2.1
3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
MIA
STL
MIA
ML
53%
85-74
48%
78-84
52%
84-77
55%
88-72
ATS
56%
89-70
56%
91-71
53%
85-76
54%
86-74
TTL
46%
68-81-10
56%
88-69-5
50%
76-75-10
53%
82-73-5
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