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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

34-50  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sun, Jun 28 • 2:10 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

43-38  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Luinder Avila
STARTING PITCHER

Luinder Avila

#58 | SP
@
Anthony Kay
STARTING PITCHER

Anthony Kay

#18 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Luinder Avila 3-3 5.40 1.62 4.0 4
Anthony Kay 6-2 4.39 1.39 3.2 2
3-3 W-L 6-2
5.40 ERA Ldr 4.39
1.62 WHIP Ldr 1.39
4.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 3.2
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
41%
📊
WHITE SOX
59%
ROYALS --
WHITE SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 64%
Under 0 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Chicago)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

41.1%

White Sox Cover

58.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHW -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

KC By 1-2 runs

16.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

10.9%

CHW By 1-2 runs

19.5%

CHW By 3-4 runs

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.6
KANSAS CITY
5.5
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI White Sox Loss
59% Win Prob
C
Sim White Sox Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI White Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim Royals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.1
B
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 CHW @ KC 9 - 1
Sep 23, 2026 CHW @ KC 4 - 5
Sep 22, 2026 CHW @ KC 14 - 11
Jun 28, 2026 KC @ CHW 5 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 KC @ CHW 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.718
OPS
▲ .826
170 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +110.0% more
Chicago: 1.8 vs Kansas City: 0.7
Hits (L5) +100.0% more
Chicago: 11.7 vs Kansas City: 5.9
Total Bases (L5) +82.9% more
Chicago: 18.3 vs Kansas City: 10.0
Runs per Game (Season) +40.8% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Kansas City: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.6 5
CHW Score 5.5 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.7 / 5.9 7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 0.7 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 7.4 8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 18.3 / 10.0 11.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.4 2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
KC
CHW
KC
ML
49% 81-86
55% 89-72
56% 94-73
56% 90-70
ATS
59% 99-68
57% 91-70
56% 93-74
58% 93-67
TTL
58% 96-69-2
58% 90-64-7
51% 84-81-2
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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