Home / MLB Projections MLB / Phillies @ Mets PHI @ NYM

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

46-37  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sun, Jun 28 • 1:40 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

35-48  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Jhoan Duran
STARTING PITCHER

Jhoan Duran

#59 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kodai Senga
STARTING PITCHER

Kodai Senga

#34 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jhoan Duran None-None 1.57 -- 1.0 --
Kodai Senga None-None 9.09 -- 5.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
1.57 Ldr ERA 9.09
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
55%
📊
METS
45%
PHILLIES --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 57%
Under 0 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.5
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

45.0%

Mets Cover

55.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM +0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.1%

PHI By 3-4 runs

15.0%

NYM By 1-2 runs

17.5%

NYM By 3-4 runs

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.9
PHILADELPHIA
4.4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Loss
83% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.5
B
Sim Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.3
C
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 PHI @ NYM 7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026 NYM @ PHI 6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
New York NYM
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.724 ▲
OPS
.705
3
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +38.8% more
Philadelphia: 1.3 vs New York: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +15.9% more
Philadelphia: 13.8 vs New York: 11.6
Hits (L5) +15.4% more
Philadelphia: 8.6 vs New York: 7.3
Slugging Pct (Season) +4.3%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs New York: 39.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 4.9 5
NYM Score 4.4 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.3 / 8.6 9.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.1 / 9.7 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 11.6 / 13.8 13.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.9 / 2.9 1.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
91%MONEY9%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
NYM Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
PHI
NYM
PHI
ML
50% 79-80
59% 97-67
48% 76-83
49% 80-84
ATS
58% 93-66
65% 107-57
49% 78-81
51% 83-81
TTL
55% 80-66-13
57% 88-67-9
51% 74-72-13
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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