TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
41-42 | Road
3
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
39-44 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Adam Macko
#71 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Shane Bieber
#57 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Macko | None-None | 1.26 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
| Shane Bieber | 0-0 | 6.00 | 2.45 | 5.1 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
0-0
1.26 Ldr
ERA
6.00
--
WHIP
2.45
1.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
59%
BLUE JAYS
41%
RANGERS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.9
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR +0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.5%
TEX By 3-4 runs
16.1%
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
5.3
TEXAS
Toronto
4.4
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rangers
Win
59% Win Prob
C
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
67% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.9
A
Sim
Rangers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.7
C
Sim
u9.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
TOR @ TEX
7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
TOR @ TEX
2 - 6
Sep 18, 2026
TOR @ TEX
1 - 7
Jun 28, 2026
TEX @ TOR
3 - 2
Jun 27, 2026
TEX @ TOR
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.15
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.713
▲
OPS
.692
183
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+16.9% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Hits (L5)
+10.2% more
Texas: 9.6
vs
Toronto: 8.7
Total Bases (L5)
+9.3% more
Texas: 15.5
vs
Toronto: 14.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.6% more
Texas: 4.2
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
5.3
3
TOR Score
4.4
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
1.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.7 / 9.6
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 1.5
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 10.2
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
14.1 / 15.5
9.0 / 12.0
Walks
5.4 / 2.0
6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
TEX
TOR
TEX
ML
46%
74-87
53%
86-76
50%
80-80
57%
91-70
ATS
56%
90-71
57%
92-70
49%
79-81
61%
98-63
TTL
51%
80-76-5
53%
78-70-14
45%
70-85-5
55%
81-66-14
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