Home / MLB Projections MLB / Nationals @ Orioles WSH @ BAL

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

42-42  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Jun 28 • 1:35 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

39-45  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Zack Littell
STARTING PITCHER

Zack Littell

#18 | SP
@
Kyle Bradish
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Bradish

#38 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Zack Littell 6-6 5.29 1.37 5.0 3
Kyle Bradish 5-7 3.77 1.45 4.0 2
6-6 W-L 5-7
5.29 ERA Ldr 3.77
1.37 Ldr WHIP 1.45
5.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 4.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
49%
📊
ORIOLES
51%
NATIONALS --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 46%
Under 0 54%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Baltimore)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

48.0%

Orioles Cover

52.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

WSH By 1-2 runs

18.1%

WSH By 3-4 runs

13.0%

BAL By 1-2 runs

18.7%

BAL By 3-4 runs

14.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.6
WASHINGTON
4.8
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
5
WASHINGTON
3
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Orioles Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Win
83% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim Nationals (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 28, 2026 WSH @ BAL 6 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 WSH @ BAL 4 - 3
Jun 26, 2026 WSH @ BAL 1 - 3
May 17, 2026 BAL @ WSH 7 - 3
May 16, 2026 BAL @ WSH 3 - 13
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Baltimore BAL
162 ▲
Games Played
161
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.744 ▲
OPS
.711
210 ▲
Home Runs
199
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +58.0% more
Baltimore: 1.4 vs Washington: 0.9
Strikeouts (L5) +11.5% more
Baltimore: 12.0 vs Washington: 10.7
Home Runs (L5) +38.7% more
Washington: 1.1 vs Baltimore: 0.7
Walks (L5) +30.2% more
Washington: 4.0 vs Baltimore: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.6 6
BAL Score 4.8 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.4 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.7 / 9.0 5.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.1 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 12.0 / 10.7 6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 11.5 / 14.8 11.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.8 / 4.0 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
WSH
BAL
WSH
ML
53% 83-73
57% 92-69
57% 90-69
54% 87-74
ATS
61% 95-60-1
58% 93-68
57% 90-68-1
57% 91-70
TTL
54% 81-70-5
50% 77-78-6
51% 78-75-6
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 18 hours, 31 minutes ago
Yankees Fan Ejected After Interfering with Potential Game-Tying …
headtopics 18 hours, 55 minutes ago
Orioles' Centerfield Crisis: Why Byron Buxton Could Be the Answer
si 1 day, 6 hours ago
Padres and Brewers: A Friendly Rivalry Rooted in Shared History
headtopics 1 day, 19 hours ago
Shane Baz's First Year with Orioles: A Mediocre Showing Raises Q…
si 2 days ago