CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
39-42 | Road
4
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
41-42 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brady Singer
#51 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Singer | 3-6 | 5.12 | 1.51 | 4.1 | 6 |
| Mitch Keller | 5-5 | 4.87 | 1.32 | 6.0 | 4 |
3-6
W-L
5-5
5.12
ERA
Ldr 4.87
1.51
WHIP
Ldr 1.32
4.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
44%
PIRATES
56%
REDS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
CIN By 1-2 runs
17.2%
CIN By 3-4 runs
11.8%
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.4
CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Win
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
67% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
B
Sim
Reds (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
PIT @ CIN
2 - 10
Aug 1, 2026
PIT @ CIN
4 - 1
Jul 31, 2026
PIT @ CIN
7 - 8
Jul 30, 2026
PIT @ CIN
2 - 3
Jun 28, 2026
CIN @ PIT
4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.699
OPS
▲
.734
213
▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+56.9% more
Pittsburgh: 1.8
vs
Cincinnati: 1.2
Errors (L5)
+52.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.0
vs
Cincinnati: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+32.1% more
Pittsburgh: 17.8
vs
Cincinnati: 13.5
Hits (L5)
+26.0% more
Pittsburgh: 10.3
vs
Cincinnati: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.4
4
PIT Score
5.0
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.3 / 8.1
11.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 1.2
4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.0 / 10.6
6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
17.8 / 13.5
24.0 / 10.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.2
4.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CIN
PIT
CIN
ML
52%
82-77
55%
88-71
52%
85-78
49%
79-81
ATS
54%
86-73
54%
86-73
50%
81-82
50%
80-80
TTL
47%
72-81-6
53%
81-73-5
50%
79-78-6
54%
83-72-5
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