Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Padres LAD @ SD

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

100-62  |  Road

15
FINAL
Sat, Jun 27 • 8:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

91-71  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
STARTING PITCHER

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

#18 | Starting Pitcher
@
Randy Vasquez
STARTING PITCHER

Randy Vasquez

#98 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Yoshinobu Yamamoto 7-5 2.67 0.87 6.0 4
Randy Vasquez 6-5 4.44 1.40 3.1 1
7-5 W-L 6-5
2.67 Ldr ERA 4.44
0.87 Ldr WHIP 1.40
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 3.1
4 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
46%
📊
PADRES
54%
DODGERS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (San Diego)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

46.0%

Padres Cover

54.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

17.7%

LAD By 3-4 runs

12.4%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.0%

SD By 3-4 runs

14.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.3
LOS ANGELES
4.7
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
4
LOS ANGELES
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Padres (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.4
A
Sim Padres (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim o8.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 SD @ LAD 4 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 7
Jul 5, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 2
Jul 4, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.94
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.257
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.338
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.424
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.762
OPS
▲ .925
204 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +37.0% more
San Diego: 0.5 vs Los Angeles: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season) +21.5% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Los Angeles: 4.9
OPS (Season) +16.3%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Los Angeles: 76.2%
Slugging Pct (Season) +13.9%
San Diego: 56.3% vs Los Angeles: 42.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 4.3 15
SD Score 4.7 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.4 / 9.3 9.0 / 17.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.1 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 7.5 6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.6 / 14.2 13.0 / 33.0
Walks 3.1 / 5.4 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
LAD
SD
LAD
ML
51% 85-83
56% 92-73
51% 85-82
48% 79-87
ATS
54% 91-77
59% 98-67
55% 92-75
43% 72-94
TTL
51% 82-80-6
48% 77-82-6
54% 86-74-6
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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