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MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

80-82  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Jun 27 • 7:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

77-85  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Zuber
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Zuber

#55 | Relief Pitcher
@
Justin Bruihl
STARTING PITCHER

Justin Bruihl

#47 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Zuber None-None 4.91 -- 1.0 1
Justin Bruihl None-None 3.89 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.91 ERA Ldr 3.89
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
48%
📊
CARDINALS
52%
MARLINS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 54%
Under 0 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (St. Louis)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

49.0%

Cardinals Cover

51.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

MIA By 1-2 runs

18.3%

MIA By 3-4 runs

13.3%

STL By 1-2 runs

18.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

13.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.4
MIAMI
4.5
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
68% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.9
C
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 28, 2026 MIA @ STL 1 - 2
Jun 27, 2026 MIA @ STL 5 - 1
Jun 26, 2026 MIA @ STL 4 - 0
Apr 22, 2026 STL @ MIA 1 - 4
Apr 21, 2026 STL @ MIA 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.727 ▲
OPS
.691
168 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +95.0% more
St. Louis: 4.3 vs Miami: 2.2
Errors (L5) +16.0% more
St. Louis: 0.4 vs Miami: 0.2
Home Runs (L5) +42.0% more
Miami: 1.0 vs St. Louis: 0.5
Strikeouts (L5) +36.1% more
Miami: 7.4 vs St. Louis: 4.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 4.4 5
STL Score 4.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.8 / 7.8 7.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 4.7 / 7.4 6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 10.2 / 12.8 7.0 / 17.0
Walks 4.3 / 2.2 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
MIA
STL
MIA
ML
53% 85-74
48% 78-84
52% 84-77
55% 88-72
ATS
56% 89-70
56% 91-71
53% 85-76
54% 86-74
TTL
46% 68-81-10
56% 88-69-5
50% 76-75-10
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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