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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

77-85  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Jun 27 • 7:05 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

79-82  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Clayton Beeter
STARTING PITCHER

Clayton Beeter

#39 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brandon Young
STARTING PITCHER

Brandon Young

#63 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Clayton Beeter None-None 3.20 -- 1.0 2
Brandon Young 6-2 3.11 1.26 5.0 8
None-None W-L 6-2
3.20 ERA Ldr 3.11
-- WHIP 1.26
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
46%
📊
ORIOLES
54%
NATIONALS --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 47%
Under 0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Baltimore)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

47.0%

Orioles Cover

53.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

WSH By 1-2 runs

17.9%

WSH By 3-4 runs

12.7%

BAL By 1-2 runs

18.9%

BAL By 3-4 runs

14.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.5
WASHINGTON
4.8
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
4
WASHINGTON
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Orioles Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Orioles Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim Nationals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim u9.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 28, 2026 WSH @ BAL 6 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 WSH @ BAL 4 - 3
Jun 26, 2026 WSH @ BAL 1 - 3
May 17, 2026 BAL @ WSH 7 - 3
May 16, 2026 BAL @ WSH 3 - 13
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Baltimore BAL
162 ▲
Games Played
161
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.744 ▲
OPS
.711
210 ▲
Home Runs
199
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +36.0% more
Baltimore: 1.1 vs Washington: 0.8
Hits (L5) +15.0% more
Baltimore: 8.1 vs Washington: 7.0
Strikeouts (L5) +8.5% more
Baltimore: 11.0 vs Washington: 10.1
Walks (L5) +40.4% more
Washington: 4.5 vs Baltimore: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.5 4
BAL Score 4.8 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.8 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.1 / 7.0 7.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 11.0 / 10.1 14.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 13.3 / 12.7 8.0 / 19.0
Walks 2.7 / 4.5 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
WSH
BAL
WSH
ML
53% 83-73
57% 92-69
57% 90-69
54% 87-74
ATS
61% 95-60-1
58% 93-68
57% 90-68-1
57% 91-70
TTL
54% 81-70-5
50% 77-78-6
51% 78-75-6
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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