ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
86-76 | Road
2
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
98-64 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Taylor Clarke
#45 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Baker
#47 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Clarke | None-None | 2.04 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Bryan Baker | None-None | 1.95 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.04
ERA
Ldr 1.95
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
45%
RAYS
55%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
59%
Under 0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
ARI By 1-2 runs
17.5%
ARI By 3-4 runs
12.1%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.1%
TB By 3-4 runs
15.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4.4
ARIZONA
Tampa Bay
4.9
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Arizona
3
ARIZONA
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Win
65% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.3
B
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
ARI @ TB
1 - 5
Jun 27, 2026
ARI @ TB
2 - 4
Jun 26, 2026
ARI @ TB
1 - 6
Apr 24, 2025
TB @ ARI
7 - 4
Apr 23, 2025
TB @ ARI
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720
OPS
▲
.728
166
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+80.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.8
vs
Arizona: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+65.7% more
Tampa Bay: 7.2
vs
Arizona: 4.4
Errors (L5)
+32.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.4
vs
Arizona: 0.1
Total Bases (L5)
+20.2% more
Tampa Bay: 17.2
vs
Arizona: 14.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.4
2
TB Score
4.9
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.3 / 8.6
8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 1.0
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 4.4
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
17.2 / 14.3
15.0 / 12.0
Walks
1.6 / 2.8
0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
ARI
TB
ARI
ML
58%
95-68
54%
87-74
58%
95-68
54%
86-74
ATS
60%
97-66
57%
91-70
55%
90-73
56%
89-71
TTL
47%
73-81-9
52%
80-73-8
51%
78-75-10
49%
73-77-9
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