Home / MLB Projections MLB / Phillies @ Mets PHI @ NYM

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

88-74  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Jun 27 • 4:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

74-88  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Kyle Backhus
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Backhus

#19 | Relief Pitcher
@
Devin Williams
STARTING PITCHER

Devin Williams

#38 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Kyle Backhus None-None 6.35 -- 1.0 1
Devin Williams None-None 4.28 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
6.35 ERA Ldr 4.28
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
48%
📊
METS
52%
PHILLIES --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 54%
Under 0 46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (New York)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

47.0%

Mets Cover

53.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

PHI By 1-2 runs

17.9%

PHI By 3-4 runs

12.7%

NYM By 1-2 runs

18.9%

NYM By 3-4 runs

14.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.5
PHILADELPHIA
4.8
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Win
65% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
B
Sim Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.3
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 PHI @ NYM 7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026 NYM @ PHI 6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
New York NYM
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.724 ▲
OPS
.705
3
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +6700.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5) +61.7% more
New York: 2.9 vs Philadelphia: 1.8
Runs per Game (Season) +23.1% more
New York: 4.3 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
Errors (L5) +19.0% more
New York: 1.1 vs Philadelphia: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 4.5 2
NYM Score 4.8 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.0 / 10.5 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.2 / 10.1 10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 11.5 / 16.8 12.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.9 / 1.8 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
65%MONEY35%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
NYM Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
PHI
NYM
PHI
ML
50% 79-80
59% 97-67
48% 76-83
49% 80-84
ATS
58% 93-66
65% 107-57
49% 78-81
51% 83-81
TTL
55% 80-66-13
57% 88-67-9
51% 74-72-13
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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