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HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

81-81  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sat, Jun 27 • 1:10 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

76-86  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Josh Hader
STARTING PITCHER

Josh Hader

#71 | Relief Pitcher
@
Framber Valdez
STARTING PITCHER

Framber Valdez

#59 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Josh Hader None-None 0.82 -- 1.0 1
Framber Valdez 4-5 4.05 1.33 6.0 2
None-None W-L 4-5
0.82 Ldr ERA 4.05
-- WHIP 1.33
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
48%
📊
TIGERS
52%
ASTROS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Detroit)
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

49.0%

Tigers Cover

51.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

HOU By 1-2 runs

18.3%

HOU By 3-4 runs

13.3%

DET By 1-2 runs

18.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

13.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.3
HOUSTON
4.4
DETROIT
Simulated Score
4
HOUSTON
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim Astros (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 28, 2026 HOU @ DET 7 - 5
Jun 27, 2026 HOU @ DET 8 - 6
Jun 26, 2026 HOU @ DET 0 - 8
Jun 25, 2026 HOU @ DET 2 - 1
Jun 17, 2026 DET @ HOU 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Detroit DET
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .241
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.582
OPS
▲ .720
4
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4425.0% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5) +70.0% more
Detroit: 1.5 vs Houston: 0.8
Runs per Game (Season) +48.7% more
Detroit: 4.5 vs Houston: 3.0
Total Bases (L5) +25.6% more
Detroit: 12.2 vs Houston: 9.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 4.3 8
DET Score 4.4 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.5 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 6.9 / 6.2 11.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 0.8 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 9.7 5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 12.2 / 9.7 20.0 / 21.0
Walks 1.3 / 3.8 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
HOU
DET
HOU
ML
54% 86-73
50% 81-82
54% 87-73
47% 77-87
ATS
64% 101-58
56% 91-72
57% 91-69
55% 90-74
TTL
46% 69-81-9
45% 70-84-9
46% 69-81-10
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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