NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
93-68 | Road
1
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
87-75 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gerrit Cole
#45 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Bennett
#64 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole | 2-2 | 4.06 | 1.18 | 5.1 | 5 |
| Jake Bennett | 1-3 | 3.27 | 1.13 | 6.1 | 3 |
2-2
W-L
1-3
4.06
ERA
Ldr 3.27
1.18
WHIP
Ldr 1.13
5.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.1
5 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
53%
RED SOX
47%
YANKEES
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
NYY By 1-2 runs
18.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
13.9%
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.3%
BOS By 3-4 runs
13.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.5
NEW YORK
Boston
4.4
BOSTON
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Boston
6
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
65% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.9
B
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Boston
BOS
1
Games Played
▲
2
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
1.041
▲
OPS
.409
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+88.9% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+67.2% more
New York: 1.3
vs
Boston: 0.4
OPS (Season)
+63.2%
New York: 1.0%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Walks (L5)
+35.5% more
New York: 3.3
vs
Boston: 2.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
4.5
1
BOS Score
4.4
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.5 / 6.1
7.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.0
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 6.9
6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
15.1 / 10.6
14.0 / 6.0
Walks
2.1 / 3.3
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
NYY
BOS
NYY
ML
50%
80-80
47%
76-85
47%
76-87
52%
85-77
ATS
58%
93-67
59%
95-66
48%
79-84
53%
86-76
TTL
46%
72-83-5
53%
81-73-7
47%
74-83-6
53%
82-72-7
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