Home / MLB Projections MLB / Braves @ Giants ATL @ SF

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

94-68  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Jun 26 • 10:15 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

65-97  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Reynaldo Lopez
STARTING PITCHER

Reynaldo Lopez

#40 | Relief Pitcher
@
Adrian Houser
STARTING PITCHER

Adrian Houser

#12 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Reynaldo Lopez 3-1 3.47 1.37 3.0 1
Adrian Houser None-None 5.53 -- 2.1 1
3-1 W-L None-None
3.47 Ldr ERA 5.53
1.37 WHIP --
3.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 2.1
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
45%
📊
GIANTS
55%
BRAVES --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (San Francisco)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

44.0%

Giants Cover

56.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

ATL By 1-2 runs

17.2%

ATL By 3-4 runs

11.8%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.3%

SF By 3-4 runs

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
3.9
ATLANTA
4.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
ATLANTA
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Loss
68% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Giants (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
A
Sim Giants (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
D
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 31, 2026 SF @ ATL 7 - 3
Jun 28, 2026 ATL @ SF 2 - 3
Jun 27, 2026 ATL @ SF 0 - 5
Jun 26, 2026 ATL @ SF 3 - 1
Jun 17, 2026 SF @ ATL 7 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
San Francisco SF
1
Games Played
▲ 162
5.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.324 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.433 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.757 ▲
OPS
.706
1
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +17700.0% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Atlanta: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +68.0% more
San Francisco: 1.6 vs Atlanta: 0.9
Total Bases (L5) +16.1% more
San Francisco: 13.1 vs Atlanta: 11.3
Batting Avg (Season) +1.2%
San Francisco: 24.5% vs Atlanta: 23.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 3.9 3
SF Score 4.5 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.8 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.6 / 7.2 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 8.2 6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 13.1 / 11.3 11.0 / 9.0
Walks 3.2 / 4.8 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
93%MONEY7%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
ATL
SF
ATL
ML
49% 79-81
46% 77-90
53% 85-75
54% 90-78
ATS
62% 100-60
57% 96-71
52% 83-77
52% 87-81
TTL
55% 82-68-10
53% 83-73-11
46% 68-81-11
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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