Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Padres LAD @ SD

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

100-62  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Jun 26 • 9:45 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

91-71  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Roki Sasaki
STARTING PITCHER

Roki Sasaki

#11 | Starting Pitcher
@
Walker Buehler
STARTING PITCHER

Walker Buehler

#10 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Roki Sasaki 3-4 4.88 1.29 4.0 2
Walker Buehler 4-3 3.81 1.32 5.1 5
3-4 W-L 4-3
4.88 ERA Ldr 3.81
1.29 Ldr WHIP 1.32
4.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.1
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
53%
📊
PADRES
47%
DODGERS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 64%
Under 0 36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.3
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

47.0%

Padres Cover

53.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD +0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

LAD By 1-2 runs

18.9%

LAD By 3-4 runs

14.4%

SD By 1-2 runs

17.9%

SD By 3-4 runs

12.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.6
LOS ANGELES
4.3
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
6
LOS ANGELES
4
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.3
B
Sim Dodgers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.9
B
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 SD @ LAD 4 - 2
Sep 23, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 1
Sep 22, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 7
Jul 5, 2026 SD @ LAD 5 - 2
Jul 4, 2026 SD @ LAD 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.94
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.257
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.338
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.424
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.762
OPS
▲ .925
204 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Hits (L5) +27.3% more
Los Angeles: 10.4 vs San Diego: 7.6
Walks (L5) +23.9% more
Los Angeles: 3.6 vs San Diego: 2.7
Total Bases (L5) +21.4% more
Los Angeles: 15.7 vs San Diego: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 4.6 1
SD Score 4.3 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.3 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.6 / 10.4 7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.1 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.7 / 9.3 6.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 12.4 / 15.7 13.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.7 / 3.6 4.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
LAD
SD
LAD
ML
51% 85-83
56% 92-73
51% 85-82
48% 79-87
ATS
54% 91-77
59% 98-67
55% 92-75
43% 72-94
TTL
51% 82-80-6
48% 77-82-6
54% 86-74-6
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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