MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
80-82 | Road
4
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
77-85 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael McGreevy
#36 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 3.48 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Michael McGreevy | 3-6 | 3.12 | 1.15 | 6.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
3-6
3.48
ERA
Ldr 3.12
--
WHIP
1.15
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
54%
CARDINALS
46%
MARLINS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
63%
Under 0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL +0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.1%
MIA By 3-4 runs
15.0%
STL By 1-2 runs
17.5%
STL By 3-4 runs
12.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4.9
MIAMI
St. Louis
4.4
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
68% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.5
A
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.3
B
Sim
u8.0
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
MIA @ STL
1 - 2
Jun 27, 2026
MIA @ STL
5 - 1
Jun 26, 2026
MIA @ STL
4 - 0
Apr 22, 2026
STL @ MIA
1 - 4
Apr 21, 2026
STL @ MIA
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.727
▲
OPS
.691
168
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+44.8% more
Miami: 1.4
vs
St. Louis: 0.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+32.9% more
Miami: 7.6
vs
St. Louis: 5.1
Total Bases (L5)
+9.2% more
Miami: 14.7
vs
St. Louis: 13.4
OPS (Season)
+3.6%
Miami: 72.7%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.9
4
STL Score
4.4
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 7.7
3.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
5.1 / 7.6
4.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.4 / 14.7
4.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.9 / 2.3
5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
MIA
STL
MIA
ML
53%
85-74
48%
78-84
52%
84-77
55%
88-72
ATS
56%
89-70
56%
91-71
53%
85-76
54%
86-74
TTL
46%
68-81-10
56%
88-69-5
50%
76-75-10
53%
82-73-5
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