COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
58-104 | Road
8
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
77-85 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tomoyuki Sugano
#11 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Taj Bradley
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomoyuki Sugano | 8-4 | 4.80 | 1.29 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Taj Bradley | 6-3 | 3.98 | 1.32 | 7.0 | 7 |
8-4
W-L
6-3
4.80
ERA
Ldr 3.98
1.29 Ldr
WHIP
1.32
5.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 7.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKIES
38%
TWINS
62%
ROCKIES
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIN -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
COL By 1-2 runs
15.5%
COL By 3-4 runs
9.8%
MIN By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIN By 3-4 runs
17.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Colorado
4.6
COLORADO
Minnesota
5.9
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Colorado
7
COLORADO
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Twins
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rockies
Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim
Rockies (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o9.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.5
B
Sim
o9.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
COL @ MIN
2 - 3
Jun 27, 2026
COL @ MIN
8 - 5
Jun 26, 2026
COL @ MIN
8 - 9
Jul 20, 2025
MIN @ COL
7 - 1
Jul 19, 2025
MIN @ COL
6 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Colorado
COL
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.64
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.254
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.322
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.417
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.403
.739
▲
OPS
.720
180
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+49.5% more
Minnesota: 9.1
vs
Colorado: 6.1
Errors (L5)
+21.0% more
Minnesota: 0.4
vs
Colorado: 0.2
Walks (L5)
+15.9% more
Minnesota: 3.7
vs
Colorado: 3.2
Home Runs (L5)
+12.0% more
Minnesota: 1.0
vs
Colorado: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
COL Score
4.6
8
MIN Score
5.9
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.5 / 10.6
14.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.9
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 6.1
8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 14.9
24.0 / 22.0
Walks
3.7 / 3.2
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
COL
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
COL
MIN
COL
ML
52%
84-78
60%
97-64
50%
80-81
55%
88-73
ATS
59%
95-67
60%
97-64
59%
95-66
52%
83-78
TTL
51%
78-75-9
60%
93-62-6
53%
80-72-9
50%
77-78-6
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