Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Guardians SEA @ CLE

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

76-86  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Jun 26 • 7:10 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

85-77  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Andres Munoz
STARTING PITCHER

Andres Munoz

#75 | Relief Pitcher
@
Joey Cantillo
STARTING PITCHER

Joey Cantillo

#54 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Andres Munoz None-None 4.91 -- 1.0 2
Joey Cantillo 6-3 3.87 1.40 6.0 9
None-None W-L 6-3
4.91 ERA Ldr 3.87
-- WHIP 1.40
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
72%
📊
GUARDIANS
28%
MARINERS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 92%
Under 0 8%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.5
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.5 points (Seattle)
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

73.4%

Guardians Cover

26.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA -2.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

SEA By 1-2 runs

19.1%

SEA By 3-4 runs

19.1%

CLE By 1-2 runs

12.1%

CLE By 3-4 runs

6.6%

AI Model Projected Score
7.9
SEATTLE
5.4
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
4
SEATTLE
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mariners Win
72% Win Prob
A
Sim Guardians Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mariners (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.5
A
Sim Mariners (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 13.3
A
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 28, 2026 SEA @ CLE 5 - 6
Jun 27, 2026 SEA @ CLE 3 - 4
Jun 26, 2026 SEA @ CLE 3 - 1
Mar 29, 2026 CLE @ SEA 0 - 8
Mar 28, 2026 CLE @ SEA 6 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 4.19
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .316
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .380
.693
OPS
▲ .696
182 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +59.0% more
Seattle: 0.9 vs Cleveland: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5) +21.7% more
Seattle: 10.7 vs Cleveland: 8.4
Home Runs (Season) +11.0% more
Seattle: 182.0 vs Cleveland: 162.0
Walks (L5) +26.1% more
Cleveland: 2.7 vs Seattle: 2.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 7.9 3
CLE Score 5.4 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.1 / 6.1 4.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 10.7 13.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 9.9 / 8.7 5.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.7 / 2.1 6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
SEA
CLE
SEA
ML
54% 87-74
50% 81-81
49% 80-82
52% 85-77
ATS
58% 93-68
60% 98-64
59% 95-67
59% 95-67
TTL
55% 88-71-2
56% 85-67-10
43% 69-90-2
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
si 2 hours, 1 minute ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 2 hours, 11 minutes ago
Jeimer Candelario Opts for Free Agency After Brief Angels Stint
si 2 hours, 18 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 2 hours, 19 minutes ago
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
players_bio 7 hours, 56 minutes ago