Home / MLB Projections MLB / Phillies @ Mets PHI @ NYM

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

88-74  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Jun 26 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

74-88  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Zack Wheeler
STARTING PITCHER

Zack Wheeler

#45 | Starting Pitcher
@
Zach Thornton
STARTING PITCHER

Zach Thornton

#49 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Zack Wheeler 7-1 2.03 0.88 7.0 5
Zach Thornton 0-1 8.31 1.38 4.1 3
7-1 W-L 0-1
2.03 Ldr ERA 8.31
0.88 Ldr WHIP 1.38
7.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 4.1
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
46%
📊
METS
54%
PHILLIES --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 67%
Under 0 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (New York)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

47.0%

Mets Cover

53.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

PHI By 1-2 runs

17.9%

PHI By 3-4 runs

12.7%

NYM By 1-2 runs

18.9%

NYM By 3-4 runs

14.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5
PHILADELPHIA
5.3
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
A
Sim Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.3
A
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 PHI @ NYM 7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026 NYM @ PHI 6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
New York NYM
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.724 ▲
OPS
.705
3
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +6700.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Walks (L5) +53.2% more
New York: 3.4 vs Philadelphia: 2.2
Errors (L5) +29.0% more
New York: 1.1 vs Philadelphia: 0.9
Runs per Game (Season) +23.1% more
New York: 4.3 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 5.0 2
NYM Score 5.3 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.9 / 11.2 5.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 2.2 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 10.8 / 11.6 9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 14.2 / 19.6 6.0 / 11.0
Walks 3.4 / 2.2 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
96%MONEY4%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
97%MONEY3%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
NYM Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
PHI
NYM
PHI
ML
50% 79-80
59% 97-67
48% 76-83
49% 80-84
ATS
58% 93-66
65% 107-57
49% 78-81
51% 83-81
TTL
55% 80-66-13
57% 88-67-9
51% 74-72-13
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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