Home / MLB Projections MLB / Yankees @ Red Sox NYY @ BOS

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

93-68  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Jun 26 • 7:10 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

87-75  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Will Warren
STARTING PITCHER

Will Warren

#29 | Starting Pitcher
@
Payton Tolle
STARTING PITCHER

Payton Tolle

#70 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Will Warren 7-2 3.75 1.33 5.2 --
Payton Tolle 3-5 2.78 1.09 7.0 7
7-2 W-L 3-5
3.75 ERA Ldr 2.78
1.33 WHIP Ldr 1.09
5.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
48%
📊
RED SOX
52%
YANKEES --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 59%
Under 0 41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Boston)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

47.0%

Red Sox Cover

53.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

NYY By 1-2 runs

17.9%

NYY By 3-4 runs

12.7%

BOS By 1-2 runs

18.9%

BOS By 3-4 runs

14.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.8
NEW YORK
5.1
BOSTON
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Win
64% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
A
Sim Red Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.9
B
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 BOS @ NYY 2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026 BOS @ NYY 0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026 BOS @ NYY 1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026 BOS @ NYY 6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026 BOS @ NYY 0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Boston BOS
1
Games Played
▲ 2
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
1.041 ▲
OPS
.409
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +9.4% more
Boston: 14.7 vs New York: 13.4
Runs per Game (Season) +88.9% more
New York: 9.0 vs Boston: 1.0
Errors (L5) +67.5% more
New York: 2.0 vs Boston: 0.6
OPS (Season) +63.2%
New York: 1.0% vs Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 4.8 1
BOS Score 5.1 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 2.0 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 7.7 9.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.5 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 9.4 7.0 / 2.0
Total Bases 14.7 / 13.4 16.0 / 5.0
Walks 2.2 / 2.9 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
93%MONEY7%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
92%MONEY8%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
87%TICKETS13%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
NYY
BOS
NYY
ML
50% 80-80
47% 76-85
47% 76-87
52% 85-77
ATS
58% 93-67
59% 95-66
48% 79-84
53% 86-76
TTL
46% 72-83-5
53% 81-73-7
47% 74-83-6
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 1 hour, 20 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 1 hour, 27 minutes ago
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
yahoo 7 hours, 16 minutes ago
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
yahoo 7 hours, 26 minutes ago
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
bleacherreport 7 hours, 30 minutes ago