ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
86-76 | Road
1
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
98-64 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ildemaro Vargas
#6 | First Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Nick Martinez
#28 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ildemaro Vargas | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Nick Martinez | 6-2 | 2.66 | 1.16 | 5.2 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
6-2
--
ERA
2.66
--
WHIP
1.16
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
40%
RAYS
60%
DIAMONDBACKS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
62%
Under 0
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
ARI By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ARI By 3-4 runs
10.6%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Arizona
4.4
ARIZONA
Tampa Bay
5.4
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Arizona
4
ARIZONA
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Win
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rays
Win
65% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Diamondbacks (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.8
B
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 28, 2026
ARI @ TB
1 - 5
Jun 27, 2026
ARI @ TB
2 - 4
Jun 26, 2026
ARI @ TB
1 - 6
Apr 24, 2025
TB @ ARI
7 - 4
Apr 23, 2025
TB @ ARI
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona
ARI
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.56
▲
Runs / Game
4.54
.246
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.318
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.720
OPS
▲
.728
166
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+70.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.7
vs
Arizona: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+47.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.6
vs
Arizona: 0.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+35.1% more
Tampa Bay: 8.9
vs
Arizona: 6.6
Hits (L5)
+22.6% more
Tampa Bay: 10.9
vs
Arizona: 8.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARI Score
4.4
1
TB Score
5.4
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.9 / 8.9
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.0
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 6.6
4.0 / 0.0
Total Bases
18.3 / 15.0
15.0 / 13.0
Walks
1.9 / 3.1
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
ARI
TB
ARI
ML
58%
95-68
54%
87-74
58%
95-68
54%
86-74
ATS
60%
97-66
57%
91-70
55%
90-73
56%
89-71
TTL
47%
73-81-9
52%
80-73-8
51%
78-75-10
49%
73-77-9
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