TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
80-82 | Road
5
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
79-83 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nathan Eovaldi
#17 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Eovaldi | 7-7 | 3.95 | 1.18 | 7.0 | 9 |
| Louis Varland | None-None | 0.82 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
7-7
W-L
None-None
3.95
ERA
Ldr 0.82
1.18
WHIP
--
7.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
9 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
61%
BLUE JAYS
39%
RANGERS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.1
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR +1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TEX By 3-4 runs
16.6%
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.1%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4.7
TEXAS
Toronto
3.6
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rangers
Win
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.1
C
Sim
Rangers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
TOR @ TEX
7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
TOR @ TEX
2 - 6
Sep 18, 2026
TOR @ TEX
1 - 7
Jun 28, 2026
TEX @ TOR
3 - 2
Jun 27, 2026
TEX @ TOR
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.15
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.713
▲
OPS
.692
183
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+39.6% more
Texas: 2.1
vs
Toronto: 1.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+22.7% more
Texas: 9.2
vs
Toronto: 7.1
Total Bases (L5)
+21.9% more
Texas: 16.0
vs
Toronto: 12.5
Home Runs (Season)
+16.9% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.7
5
TOR Score
3.6
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.5 / 9.0
9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 2.1
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.1 / 9.2
10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 16.0
13.0 / 14.0
Walks
6.1 / 2.2
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
TEX
TOR
TEX
ML
46%
74-87
53%
86-76
50%
80-80
57%
91-70
ATS
56%
90-71
57%
92-70
49%
79-81
61%
98-63
TTL
51%
80-76-5
53%
78-70-14
45%
70-85-5
55%
81-66-14
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