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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

77-85  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Jun 26 • 7:05 PM ET
Oriole Park at Camden Yards
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

79-82  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Keibert Ruiz
STARTING PITCHER

Keibert Ruiz

#20 | Catcher
@
Trevor Rogers
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Rogers

#28 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Keibert Ruiz None-None -- -- -- --
Trevor Rogers 4-7 4.99 1.36 6.1 7
None-None W-L 4-7
-- ERA 4.99
-- WHIP 1.36
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 6.1
-- K (Strikeouts) 7
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
51%
📊
ORIOLES
49%
NATIONALS --
ORIOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 61%
Under 0 39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 OriolesBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

49.0%

Orioles Cover

51.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BAL +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

WSH By 1-2 runs

18.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

13.9%

BAL By 1-2 runs

18.3%

BAL By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5.1
WASHINGTON
5
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
4
WASHINGTON
6
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Nationals Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Orioles Win
68% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.1
A
Sim Orioles (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.1
B
Sim o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 28, 2026 WSH @ BAL 6 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 WSH @ BAL 4 - 3
Jun 26, 2026 WSH @ BAL 1 - 3
May 17, 2026 BAL @ WSH 7 - 3
May 16, 2026 BAL @ WSH 3 - 13
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Baltimore BAL
162 ▲
Games Played
161
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.744 ▲
OPS
.711
210 ▲
Home Runs
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +13.6% more
Washington: 1.8 vs Baltimore: 1.5
Runs per Game (Season) +12.0% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Baltimore: 4.5
Home Runs (Season) +5.2% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Baltimore: 199.0
OPS (Season) +3.3%
Washington: 74.4% vs Baltimore: 71.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 5.1 1
BAL Score 5.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.1 / 8.0 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.8 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 11.5 / 9.2 10.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 14.5 / 15.1 11.0 / 8.0
Walks 4.0 / 3.2 0.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
WSH
BAL
WSH
ML
53% 83-73
57% 92-69
57% 90-69
54% 87-74
ATS
61% 95-60-1
58% 93-68
57% 90-68-1
57% 91-70
TTL
54% 81-70-5
50% 77-78-6
51% 78-75-6
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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