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HOUSTON

ASTROSHOU

81-81  |  Road

0
FINAL
Fri, Jun 26 • 6:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

76-86  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Bryan Abreu
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Abreu

#52 | Relief Pitcher
@
Keider Montero
STARTING PITCHER

Keider Montero

#54 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bryan Abreu None-None 6.15 -- 1.0 1
Keider Montero 3-5 3.39 1.00 7.0 3
None-None W-L 3-5
6.15 ERA Ldr 3.39
-- WHIP 1.00
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 7.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
49%
📊
TIGERS
51%
ASTROS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 44%
Under 0 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Detroit)
AstrosHOU (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Astros Cover

48.0%

Tigers Cover

52.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

HOU By 1-2 runs

18.1%

HOU By 3-4 runs

13.0%

DET By 1-2 runs

18.7%

DET By 3-4 runs

14.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.1
HOUSTON
4.3
DETROIT
Simulated Score
3
HOUSTON
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Win
72% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.4
C
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 28, 2026 HOU @ DET 7 - 5
Jun 27, 2026 HOU @ DET 8 - 6
Jun 26, 2026 HOU @ DET 0 - 8
Jun 25, 2026 HOU @ DET 2 - 1
Jun 17, 2026 DET @ HOU 2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston HOU
vs
Detroit DET
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲ .241
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.582
OPS
▲ .720
4
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +4425.0% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Houston: 4.0
Runs per Game (Season) +48.7% more
Detroit: 4.5 vs Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season) +13.8%
Detroit: 72.0% vs Houston: 58.2%
On-Base Pct (Season) +9.1%
Detroit: 32.0% vs Houston: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 4.1 0
DET Score 4.3 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.3 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.3 / 6.8 6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.2 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 10.1 5.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 10.8 / 11.5 15.0 / 6.0
Walks 0.9 / 2.1 2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
81-83-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +0.7
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
HOU
DET
HOU
ML
54% 86-73
50% 81-82
54% 87-73
47% 77-87
ATS
64% 101-58
56% 91-72
57% 91-69
55% 90-74
TTL
46% 69-81-9
45% 70-84-9
46% 69-81-10
45% 69-86-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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