CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
75-87 | Road
6
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
82-80 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Abbott
#41 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Skenes
#30 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott | 5-4 | 3.90 | 1.42 | 5.1 | 6 |
| Paul Skenes | 6-7 | 3.10 | 0.93 | 5.0 | 7 |
5-4
W-L
6-7
3.90
ERA
Ldr 3.10
1.42
WHIP
Ldr 0.93
5.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
6
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
49%
PIRATES
51%
REDS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PIT -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
CIN By 1-2 runs
18.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
13.3%
PIT By 1-2 runs
18.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
13.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4.5
CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh
4.6
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Loss
68% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
B
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.1
A
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
PIT @ CIN
2 - 10
Aug 1, 2026
PIT @ CIN
4 - 1
Jul 31, 2026
PIT @ CIN
7 - 8
Jul 30, 2026
PIT @ CIN
2 - 3
Jun 28, 2026
CIN @ PIT
4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.394
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.699
OPS
▲
.734
213
▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5)
+55.1% more
Pittsburgh: 16.9
vs
Cincinnati: 10.9
Hits (L5)
+51.8% more
Pittsburgh: 10.3
vs
Cincinnati: 6.8
Home Runs (L5)
+47.0% more
Pittsburgh: 1.1
vs
Cincinnati: 0.6
Errors (L5)
+16.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.7
vs
Cincinnati: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.5
6
PIT Score
4.6
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.3 / 6.8
9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.6
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.3 / 9.9
13.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
16.9 / 10.9
18.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.9
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
CIN
PIT
CIN
ML
52%
82-77
55%
88-71
52%
85-78
49%
79-81
ATS
54%
86-73
54%
86-73
50%
81-82
50%
80-80
TTL
47%
72-81-6
53%
81-73-5
50%
79-78-6
54%
83-72-5
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