NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
93-68 | Road
3
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
87-75 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Yarbrough
#33 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Yarbrough | None-None | 3.90 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.99 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.90
ERA
Ldr 1.99
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
61%
RED SOX
39%
YANKEES
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
81%
Under 0
19%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.3
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS +1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.7%
NYY By 3-4 runs
17.0%
BOS By 1-2 runs
15.5%
BOS By 3-4 runs
9.8%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
6.4
NEW YORK
Boston
5.1
BOSTON
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Yankees
Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim
Red Sox
Win
67% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.3
D
Sim
Red Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 11.5
A
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026
BOS @ NYY
1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026
BOS @ NYY
6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026
BOS @ NYY
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Boston
BOS
1
Games Played
▲
2
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
1.041
▲
OPS
.409
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+88.9% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
OPS (Season)
+63.2%
New York: 1.0%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Walks (L5)
+38.9% more
New York: 2.9
vs
Boston: 1.7
Slugging Pct (Season)
+34.4%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Boston: 25.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
6.4
3
BOS Score
5.1
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 1.0
0.0 / 4.0
Hits
8.8 / 7.5
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 9.1
10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
16.5 / 14.1
11.0 / 12.0
Walks
1.7 / 2.9
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
BOS
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
NYY
BOS
NYY
ML
50%
80-80
47%
76-85
47%
76-87
52%
85-77
ATS
58%
93-67
59%
95-66
48%
79-84
53%
86-76
TTL
46%
72-83-5
53%
81-73-7
47%
74-83-6
53%
82-72-7
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …