CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
89-73 | Road
4
NEW YORK
METSNYM
74-88 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Trent Thornton
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Devin Williams
#38 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Thornton | None-None | 2.86 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Devin Williams | None-None | 4.44 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.86 Ldr
ERA
4.44
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
44%
METS
56%
CUBS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
54%
Under 0
46%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
CHC By 1-2 runs
17.0%
CHC By 3-4 runs
11.5%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.4%
NYM By 3-4 runs
15.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.1
CHICAGO
New York
4.8
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
New York
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Loss
75% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
B
Sim
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.9
C
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 25, 2026
CHC @ NYM
4 - 3
Jun 24, 2026
CHC @ NYM
10 - 3
Jun 23, 2026
CHC @ NYM
9 - 6
Apr 19, 2026
NYM @ CHC
1 - 2
Apr 18, 2026
NYM @ CHC
2 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
New York
NYM
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.395
.374
OPS
▲
.705
0
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+20400.0% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+381.0% more
New York: 4.3
vs
Chicago: 0.5
Errors (L5)
+63.0% more
New York: 0.7
vs
Chicago: 0.1
OPS (Season)
+33.1%
New York: 70.5%
vs
Chicago: 37.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
4.1
4
NYM Score
4.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.1
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.4 / 9.8
9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 2.1
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.2 / 8.0
12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 19.0
16.0 / 8.0
Walks
4.1 / 3.4
2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
CHC
NYM
CHC
ML
50%
79-80
58%
93-68
48%
76-83
51%
82-79
ATS
58%
93-66
61%
97-63-1
49%
78-81
47%
75-85-1
TTL
55%
80-66-13
52%
81-74-6
51%
74-72-13
46%
72-83-6
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