PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
88-74 | Road
10
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
77-85 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Mayza
#37 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Clayton Beeter
#39 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Mayza | None-None | 3.06 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Clayton Beeter | None-None | 3.33 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.06 Ldr
ERA
3.33
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
63%
NATIONALS
37%
PHILLIES
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
81%
Under 0
19%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.3
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH +1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.7%
PHI By 3-4 runs
17.0%
WSH By 1-2 runs
15.5%
WSH By 3-4 runs
9.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
6.7
PHILADELPHIA
Washington
5.4
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Nationals
Loss
68% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.3
D
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 12.1
A
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 0
Sep 15, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 6, 2026
WSH @ PHI
3 - 7
Aug 5, 2026
WSH @ PHI
10 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
WSH @ PHI
0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Washington
WSH
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
.724
OPS
▲
.744
3
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.6% more
Philadelphia: 11.5
vs
Washington: 8.8
Hits (L5)
+21.8% more
Philadelphia: 10.3
vs
Washington: 8.0
Walks (L5)
+19.6% more
Philadelphia: 2.8
vs
Washington: 2.3
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Washington: 42.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
6.7
10
WSH Score
5.4
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.3
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.0 / 10.3
8.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 1.7
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 11.5
10.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
16.7 / 17.9
12.0 / 23.0
Walks
2.3 / 2.8
5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PHI
WSH
PHI
ML
57%
92-69
59%
97-67
54%
87-74
49%
80-84
ATS
58%
93-68
65%
107-57
57%
91-70
51%
83-81
TTL
50%
77-78-6
57%
88-67-9
42%
65-90-6
51%
78-76-9
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