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ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

38-41  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Jun 24 • 9:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

32-46  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Elvis Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Elvis Alvarado

#37 | Relief Pitcher
@
Dylan Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Dylan Smith

#66 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Elvis Alvarado None-None 6.20 -- 0.2 --
Dylan Smith None-None 1.17 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
6.20 ERA Ldr 1.17
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
51%
📊
GIANTS
49%
ATHLETICS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
AthleticsATH (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Athletics Cover

49.0%

Giants Cover

51.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SF +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

ATH By 1-2 runs

18.6%

ATH By 3-4 runs

13.9%

SF By 1-2 runs

18.3%

SF By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5.1
ATHLETICS
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
ATHLETICS
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Athletics Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
68% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim Giants (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.1
A
Sim u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 25, 2026 ATH @ SF 9 - 6
Jun 24, 2026 ATH @ SF 1 - 2
Jun 23, 2026 ATH @ SF 1 - 3
May 17, 2026 SF @ ATH 10 - 1
May 16, 2026 SF @ ATH 6 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics ATH
vs
San Francisco SF
162
Games Played
162
4.31 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.245
Avg (AVG)
.245
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.719 ▲
OPS
.706
194 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +37.1% more
Athletics: 10.4 vs San Francisco: 6.6
Walks (L5) +9.2% more
Athletics: 3.8 vs San Francisco: 3.5
Home Runs (Season) +8.2% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs San Francisco: 178.0
Runs per Game (Season) +4.2% more
Athletics: 4.3 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATH Score 5.1 1
SF Score 5.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.2 / 0.0 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.1 / 6.3 6.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.6 / 10.4 7.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 13.3 / 10.4 13.0 / 7.0
Walks 3.5 / 3.8 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
86%MONEY14%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
ATH
SF
ATH
ML
49% 79-81
59% 95-67
53% 85-75
54% 87-74
ATS
62% 100-60
52% 84-78
52% 83-77
50% 81-80
TTL
55% 82-68-10
54% 84-73-5
46% 68-81-11
42% 66-90-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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