Home / MLB Projections MLB / Braves @ Padres ATL @ SD

ATLANTA

BRAVESATL

48-30  |  Road

2
FINAL
Wed, Jun 24 • 8:40 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

41-37  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Didier Fuentes
STARTING PITCHER

Didier Fuentes

#72 | Relief Pitcher
@
Wandy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Wandy Peralta

#58 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Didier Fuentes None-None 2.35 -- 1.0 --
Wandy Peralta None-None 1.82 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.35 ERA Ldr 1.82
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
50%
📊
PADRES
50%
BRAVES --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 58%
Under 0 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (San Diego)
BravesATL (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Braves Cover

48.0%

Padres Cover

52.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

ATL By 1-2 runs

18.1%

ATL By 3-4 runs

13.0%

SD By 1-2 runs

18.7%

SD By 3-4 runs

14.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.3
ATLANTA
4.5
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
4
ATLANTA
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
63% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim Padres (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.8
B
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 23, 2026 SD @ ATL 5 - 6
Jul 22, 2026 SD @ ATL 6 - 7
Jul 21, 2026 SD @ ATL 8 - 3
Jul 20, 2026 SD @ ATL 2 - 3
Jun 24, 2026 ATL @ SD 2 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta ATL
vs
San Diego SD
1
Games Played
▲ 2
5.00
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.324
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.433
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.757
OPS
▲ .925
1
Home Runs
▲ 4
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +21.5% more
San Diego: 10.1 vs Atlanta: 8.3
Runs per Game (Season) +20.0% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Atlanta: 5.0
OPS (Season) +16.8%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Atlanta: 75.7%
Slugging Pct (Season) +13.0%
San Diego: 56.3% vs Atlanta: 43.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 4.3 2
SD Score 4.5 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.9 / 7.8 7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.1 / 8.3 6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 12.5 / 12.0 12.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.0 / 4.2 2.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
93%MONEY7%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
97-72-0 (57.4%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
SD
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: 0.0
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
ATL
SD
ATL
ML
51% 85-83
46% 77-90
51% 85-82
54% 90-78
ATS
54% 91-77
57% 96-71
55% 92-75
52% 87-81
TTL
51% 82-80-6
53% 83-73-11
54% 86-74-6
49% 76-80-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 38 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 46 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 49 minutes ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 12 hours, 52 minutes ago
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 18 hours, 33 minutes ago