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ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

40-39  |  Road

9
FINAL
Wed, Jun 24 • 7:45 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

42-35  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Taylor Clarke
STARTING PITCHER

Taylor Clarke

#45 | Relief Pitcher
@
Justin Bruihl
STARTING PITCHER

Justin Bruihl

#47 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Taylor Clarke None-None 2.10 -- 1.0 --
Justin Bruihl None-None 4.15 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
2.10 Ldr ERA 4.15
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
52%
📊
CARDINALS
48%
DIAMONDBACKS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 49%
Under 0 51%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.2
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

48.0%

Cardinals Cover

52.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL +0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

ARI By 1-2 runs

18.7%

ARI By 3-4 runs

14.1%

STL By 1-2 runs

18.1%

STL By 3-4 runs

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.6
ARIZONA
4.4
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
ARIZONA
6
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks Win
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.2
A
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 23, 2026 ARI @ STL 10 - 6
Jul 19, 2026 STL @ ARI 7 - 8
Jul 18, 2026 STL @ ARI 3 - 5
Jul 17, 2026 STL @ ARI 5 - 4
Jun 24, 2026 ARI @ STL 9 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.44
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.720 ▲
OPS
.691
166
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +18.8% more
Arizona: 6.3 vs St. Louis: 5.2
Walks (L5) +9.8% more
Arizona: 3.7 vs St. Louis: 3.3
OPS (Season) +2.9%
Arizona: 72.0% vs St. Louis: 69.1%
Runs per Game (Season) +2.6% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs St. Louis: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 4.6 9
STL Score 4.4 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.9 / 7.3 8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.5 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 5.2 / 6.3 5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.0 / 11.5 14.0 / 22.0
Walks 3.3 / 3.7 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
ARI
STL
ARI
ML
53% 85-74
54% 87-74
52% 84-77
54% 86-74
ATS
56% 89-70
57% 91-70
53% 85-76
56% 89-71
TTL
46% 68-81-10
52% 80-73-8
50% 76-75-10
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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