HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
38-43 | Road
3
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
39-40 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Fluharty
#68 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hader | None-None | 0.90 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Mason Fluharty | None-None | 3.98 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.90 Ldr
ERA
3.98
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
42%
BLUE JAYS
58%
ASTROS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
63%
Under 0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
HOU By 1-2 runs
16.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
10.9%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.5%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4.5
HOUSTON
Toronto
5.4
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
58% Win Prob
C
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
C
Sim
Astros (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.9
B
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 5, 2026
TOR @ HOU
5 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
TOR @ HOU
2 - 7
Aug 3, 2026
TOR @ HOU
3 - 1
Jun 24, 2026
HOU @ TOR
3 - 1
Jun 23, 2026
HOU @ TOR
9 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Toronto
TOR
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.00
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.582
OPS
▲
.692
4
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+3700.0% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Walks (L5)
+70.1% more
Toronto: 5.2
vs
Houston: 3.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+33.3% more
Toronto: 4.0
vs
Houston: 3.0
Errors (L5)
+28.0% more
Toronto: 0.9
vs
Houston: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.5
3
TOR Score
5.4
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.4 / 9.5
4.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.8
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 10.0
8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
17.0 / 16.4
7.0 / 7.0
Walks
5.2 / 3.0
8.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
HOU
TOR
HOU
ML
46%
74-87
50%
81-82
50%
80-80
47%
77-87
ATS
56%
90-71
56%
91-72
49%
79-81
55%
90-74
TTL
51%
80-76-5
45%
70-84-9
45%
70-85-5
45%
69-86-9
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
Yankees' Season Ends in Sweep as Boone Faces Fan Fury Over 'Brok…