PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
43-36 | Road
5
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
41-39 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jhoan Duran
#59 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orlando Ribalta
#64 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhoan Duran | None-None | 1.69 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Orlando Ribalta | None-None | 3.52 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.69 Ldr
ERA
3.52
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
45%
NATIONALS
55%
PHILLIES
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
57%
Under 0
43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
PHI By 1-2 runs
17.2%
PHI By 3-4 runs
11.8%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
15.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.8
PHILADELPHIA
Washington
5.4
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Loss
72% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
A
Sim
Nationals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.2
C
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 16, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 0
Sep 15, 2026
PHI @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 6, 2026
WSH @ PHI
3 - 7
Aug 5, 2026
WSH @ PHI
10 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
WSH @ PHI
0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Washington
WSH
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
.724
OPS
▲
.744
3
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+6900.0% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Errors (L5)
+58.0% more
Washington: 1.0
vs
Philadelphia: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+44.9% more
Washington: 5.1
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
On-Base Pct (Season)
+3.5%
Washington: 32.1%
vs
Philadelphia: 28.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.8
5
WSH Score
5.4
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.1 / 11.4
6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 2.1
3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.1 / 12.2
6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
16.0 / 20.4
18.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.7
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PHI
WSH
PHI
ML
57%
92-69
59%
97-67
54%
87-74
49%
80-84
ATS
58%
93-68
65%
107-57
57%
91-70
51%
83-81
TTL
50%
77-78-6
57%
88-67-9
42%
65-90-6
51%
78-76-9
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