SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
41-39 | Road
1
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
39-40 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Rucker
#38 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Carmen Mlodzinski
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Rucker | None-None | 3.00 | -- | 2.0 | 3 |
| Carmen Mlodzinski | None-None | 3.57 | -- | 3.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.00 Ldr
ERA
3.57
--
WHIP
--
2.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.0
3
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
63%
PIRATES
37%
MARINERS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
67%
Under 0
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.4
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT +1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
SEA By 3-4 runs
17.2%
PIT By 1-2 runs
15.3%
PIT By 3-4 runs
9.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Seattle
5.6
SEATTLE
Pittsburgh
4.2
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Seattle
4
SEATTLE
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mariners
Loss
63% Win Prob
B
Sim
Pirates
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.4
A
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
A
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 25, 2026
SEA @ PIT
1 - 5
Jun 24, 2026
SEA @ PIT
1 - 11
Jun 23, 2026
SEA @ PIT
3 - 2
Jul 6, 2025
PIT @ SEA
0 - 1
Jul 5, 2025
PIT @ SEA
0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle
SEA
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.693
OPS
▲
.734
182
Home Runs
▲
186
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+53.2% more
Seattle: 1.5
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.7
Home Runs (L5)
+16.7% more
Seattle: 1.1
vs
Pittsburgh: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+16.7% more
Seattle: 10.9
vs
Pittsburgh: 9.1
Hits (L5)
+69.7% more
Pittsburgh: 9.8
vs
Seattle: 5.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SEA Score
5.6
1
PIT Score
4.2
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 1.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.8 / 5.8
15.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 10.9
13.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.2 / 9.8
23.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.0 / 2.5
0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
SEA
PIT
SEA
ML
52%
82-77
50%
81-81
52%
85-78
52%
85-77
ATS
54%
86-73
60%
98-64
50%
81-82
59%
95-67
TTL
47%
72-81-6
56%
85-67-10
50%
79-78-6
53%
81-71-10
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