NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
47-31 | Road
4
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
34-45 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Waguespack
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bednar | None-None | 3.27 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Jacob Waguespack | None-None | 3.00 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.27
ERA
Ldr 3.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
47%
TIGERS
53%
YANKEES
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
NYY By 1-2 runs
18.1%
NYY By 3-4 runs
13.0%
DET By 1-2 runs
18.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
14.1%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.2
NEW YORK
Detroit
4.4
DETROIT
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Tigers
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
68% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Tigers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
B
Sim
Tigers (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.6
A
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
DET @ NYY
6 - 2
Jun 30, 2026
DET @ NYY
9 - 3
Jun 29, 2026
DET @ NYY
7 - 3
Jun 24, 2026
NYY @ DET
4 - 2
Jun 23, 2026
NYY @ DET
4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYY
vs
Detroit
DET
1
Games Played
▲
162
9.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.375
▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.447
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.594
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
1.041
▲
OPS
.720
2
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+8950.0% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+27.0% more
Detroit: 10.4
vs
New York: 8.2
Errors (L5)
+72.0% more
New York: 0.9
vs
Detroit: 0.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+50.4% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Detroit: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYY Score
4.2
4
DET Score
4.4
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.9
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.6 / 8.2
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.2
0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
10.4 / 8.2
13.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 13.1
10.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.0 / 2.8
0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
NYY
DET
NYY
ML
54%
86-73
47%
76-85
54%
87-73
52%
85-77
ATS
64%
101-58
59%
95-66
57%
91-69
53%
86-76
TTL
46%
69-81-9
53%
81-73-7
46%
69-81-10
53%
82-72-7
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