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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

34-46  |  Road

3
FINAL
Wed, Jun 24 • 6:40 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

43-33  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Daniel Lynch IV
STARTING PITCHER

Daniel Lynch IV

#41 | Relief Pitcher
@
Bryan Baker
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Baker

#47 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Daniel Lynch IV None-None 2.45 -- 1.0 --
Bryan Baker None-None 2.01 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
2.45 ERA Ldr 2.01
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
47%
📊
RAYS
53%
ROYALS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 56%
Under 0 44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Tampa Bay)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

46.0%

Rays Cover

54.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)

KC By 1-2 runs

17.7%

KC By 3-4 runs

12.4%

TB By 1-2 runs

19.0%

TB By 3-4 runs

14.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.8
KANSAS CITY
4.2
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
6
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rays Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
62% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
B
Sim Rays (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 2, 2026 TB @ KC 5 - 2
Jul 1, 2026 TB @ KC 4 - 0
Jun 30, 2026 TB @ KC 10 - 4
Jun 25, 2026 KC @ TB 2 - 13
Jun 24, 2026 KC @ TB 3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.718
OPS
▲ .728
170 ▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +31.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.4 vs Kansas City: 0.1
Runs per Game (Season) +6.6% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5 vs Kansas City: 4.3
Batting Avg (Season) +1.1%
Tampa Bay: 25.8% vs Kansas City: 24.7%
On-Base Pct (Season) +1.0%
Tampa Bay: 32.6% vs Kansas City: 31.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 3.8 3
TB Score 4.2 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.1 2.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.3 / 10.7 10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 2.1 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 7.1 12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 12.3 / 20.1 13.0 / 12.0
Walks 1.7 / 4.0 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
KC
TB
KC
ML
58% 95-68
55% 89-72
58% 95-68
56% 90-70
ATS
60% 97-66
57% 91-70
55% 90-73
58% 93-67
TTL
47% 73-81-9
58% 90-64-7
51% 78-75-10
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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