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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

38-43  |  Road

6
FINAL
Wed, Jun 24 • 4:07 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

33-48  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Andrew Kittredge
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Kittredge

#39 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sam Bachman
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Bachman

#40 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Andrew Kittredge None-None 6.00 -- 0.1 1
Sam Bachman None-None 3.44 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
6.00 ERA Ldr 3.44
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
45%
📊
ANGELS
55%
ORIOLES --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 62%
Under 0 38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Los Angeles)
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

45.0%

Angels Cover

55.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAA -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

BAL By 1-2 runs

17.5%

BAL By 3-4 runs

12.1%

LAA By 1-2 runs

19.1%

LAA By 3-4 runs

15.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.8
BALTIMORE
5.3
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
BALTIMORE
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Angels Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Angels Win
63% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.1
B
Sim u9.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 LAA @ BAL 4 - 1
Aug 5, 2026 LAA @ BAL 2 - 5
Aug 4, 2026 LAA @ BAL 1 - 3
Jun 24, 2026 BAL @ LAA 6 - 7
Jun 23, 2026 BAL @ LAA 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Los Angeles LAA
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.234
Avg (AVG)
.234
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.711 ▲
OPS
.679
199 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +21.1% more
Los Angeles: 1.6 vs Baltimore: 1.3
Strikeouts (L5) +20.8% more
Los Angeles: 10.5 vs Baltimore: 8.7
Walks (L5) +15.0% more
Los Angeles: 2.8 vs Baltimore: 2.5
Hits (L5) +13.7% more
Los Angeles: 8.7 vs Baltimore: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 4.8 6
LAA Score 5.3 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 0.0 / 3.0
Hits 8.7 / 7.7 8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.3 1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.5 / 8.7 10.0 / 17.0
Total Bases 14.7 / 13.2 12.0 / 17.0
Walks 2.8 / 2.5 3.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
BAL
LAA
BAL
ML
59% 96-66
53% 83-73
55% 89-73
57% 90-69
ATS
60% 97-65
61% 95-60-1
51% 82-80
57% 90-68-1
TTL
53% 83-74-5
54% 81-70-5
52% 82-75-5
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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