TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
38-41 | Road
2
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
41-39 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Robby Ahlstrom
#54 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Pete Fairbanks
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robby Ahlstrom | None-None | 0.96 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Pete Fairbanks | None-None | 6.75 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.96 Ldr
ERA
6.75
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
46%
MARLINS
54%
RANGERS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
63%
Under 0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
TEX By 1-2 runs
17.7%
TEX By 3-4 runs
12.4%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.0%
MIA By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4.2
TEXAS
Miami
4.6
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Win
68% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
A
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.8
B
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 24, 2026
TEX @ MIA
2 - 4
Jun 23, 2026
TEX @ MIA
4 - 6
Jun 22, 2026
TEX @ MIA
4 - 3
Sep 21, 2025
MIA @ TEX
4 - 2
Sep 20, 2025
MIA @ TEX
4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.713
OPS
▲
.727
183
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+32.0% more
Miami: 0.5
vs
Texas: 0.2
Walks (L5)
+25.9% more
Miami: 3.4
vs
Texas: 2.7
Home Runs (L5)
+17.9% more
Miami: 1.7
vs
Texas: 1.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.3% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
Texas: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.2
2
MIA Score
4.6
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.6 / 9.6
6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.4
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 9.3
7.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
16.1 / 15.6
12.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.4 / 2.7
0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
TEX
MIA
TEX
ML
48%
78-84
53%
86-76
55%
88-72
57%
91-70
ATS
56%
91-71
57%
92-70
54%
86-74
61%
98-63
TTL
56%
88-69-5
53%
78-70-14
53%
82-73-5
55%
81-66-14
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