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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

43-36  |  Road

14
FINAL
Tue, Jun 23 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

41-39  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Jonathan Bowlan
STARTING PITCHER

Jonathan Bowlan

#52 | Relief Pitcher
@
Clayton Beeter
STARTING PITCHER

Clayton Beeter

#39 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jonathan Bowlan None-None 3.47 -- 0.1 1
Clayton Beeter None-None 3.42 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.47 ERA Ldr 3.42
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
50%
📊
NATIONALS
50%
PHILLIES --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.1
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

49.0%

Nationals Cover

51.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH +0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

PHI By 1-2 runs

18.6%

PHI By 3-4 runs

13.9%

WSH By 1-2 runs

18.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

13.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.8
PHILADELPHIA
4.7
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
6
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nationals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: +0.1
B
Sim Nationals (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.5
B
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 PHI @ WSH 3 - 0
Sep 15, 2026 PHI @ WSH 3 - 6
Aug 6, 2026 WSH @ PHI 3 - 7
Aug 5, 2026 WSH @ PHI 10 - 4
Aug 4, 2026 WSH @ PHI 0 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Washington WSH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .321
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
.724
OPS
▲ .744
3
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Slugging Pct (Season) +1.5%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Washington: 42.3%
Home Runs (Season) +6900.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Runs per Game (Season) +44.9% more
Washington: 5.1 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
Errors (L5) +37.0% more
Washington: 1.0 vs Philadelphia: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 4.8 14
WSH Score 4.7 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.6 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.1 / 8.6 9.0 / 17.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.6 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 9.8 12.0 / 17.0
Total Bases 16.0 / 15.6 16.0 / 30.0
Walks 2.1 / 2.1 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
75%MONEY25%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PHI
WSH
PHI
ML
57% 92-69
59% 97-67
54% 87-74
49% 80-84
ATS
58% 93-68
65% 107-57
57% 91-70
51% 83-81
TTL
50% 77-78-6
57% 88-67-9
42% 65-90-6
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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