TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
38-41 | Road
4
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
41-39 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cal Quantrill
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Pete Fairbanks
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Quantrill | None-None | 3.73 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
| Pete Fairbanks | None-None | 6.65 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.73 Ldr
ERA
6.65
--
WHIP
--
2.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
36%
MARLINS
64%
RANGERS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
62%
Under 0
38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
TEX By 1-2 runs
15.0%
TEX By 3-4 runs
9.2%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Miami
5.5
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
👑 Top Selection
AI
Marlins
Win
64% Win Prob
B
Sim
Marlins
Win
68% Win Prob
A
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim
Rangers (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
B
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 24, 2026
TEX @ MIA
2 - 4
Jun 23, 2026
TEX @ MIA
4 - 6
Jun 22, 2026
TEX @ MIA
4 - 3
Sep 21, 2025
MIA @ TEX
4 - 2
Sep 20, 2025
MIA @ TEX
4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.713
OPS
▲
.727
183
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+42.1% more
Miami: 3.6
vs
Texas: 2.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+6.3% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
Texas: 4.2
OPS (Season)
+1.4%
Miami: 72.7%
vs
Texas: 71.3%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.9%
Miami: 32.6%
vs
Texas: 31.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.0
4
MIA Score
5.5
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 9.5
12.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.1
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 10.9
7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.1 / 14.5
24.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.6 / 2.5
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
TEX
MIA
TEX
ML
48%
78-84
53%
86-76
55%
88-72
57%
91-70
ATS
56%
91-71
57%
92-70
54%
86-74
61%
98-63
TTL
56%
88-69-5
53%
78-70-14
53%
82-73-5
55%
81-66-14
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