Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mariners @ Pirates SEA @ PIT

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

41-39  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Jun 23 • 6:40 PM ET
PNC Park
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PIRATESPIT

39-40  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Andres Munoz
STARTING PITCHER

Andres Munoz

#75 | Relief Pitcher
@
Mason Montgomery
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Montgomery

#46 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Andres Munoz None-None 5.08 -- 1.0 3
Mason Montgomery None-None 4.55 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
5.08 ERA Ldr 4.55
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
MARINERS
53%
📊
PIRATES
47%
MARINERS --
PIRATES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.2
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
MarinersSEA (-3.5) 0 PiratesPIT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mariners Cover

48.0%

Pirates Cover

52.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT +0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)

SEA By 1-2 runs

18.7%

SEA By 3-4 runs

14.1%

PIT By 1-2 runs

18.1%

PIT By 3-4 runs

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.7
SEATTLE
4.5
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
3
SEATTLE
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mariners Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim Pirates Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Pirates (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.2
B
Sim Pirates (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.2
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 25, 2026 SEA @ PIT 1 - 5
Jun 24, 2026 SEA @ PIT 1 - 11
Jun 23, 2026 SEA @ PIT 3 - 2
Jul 6, 2025 PIT @ SEA 0 - 1
Jul 5, 2025 PIT @ SEA 0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Seattle SEA
vs
Pittsburgh PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.10
Runs / Game
▲ 4.73
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲ .253
.314
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .330
.379
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .404
.693
OPS
▲ .734
182
Home Runs
▲ 186
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +23.0% more
Seattle: 0.8 vs Pittsburgh: 0.6
Strikeouts (L5) +19.6% more
Seattle: 11.3 vs Pittsburgh: 9.1
Total Bases (L5) +143.0% more
Pittsburgh: 17.4 vs Seattle: 7.1
Hits (L5) +119.5% more
Pittsburgh: 10.1 vs Seattle: 4.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEA Score 4.7 3
PIT Score 4.5 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.8 1.0 / 3.0
Hits 10.1 / 4.6 9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 0.7 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 11.3 9.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 17.4 / 7.1 11.0 / 15.0
Walks 3.4 / 2.2 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
82-80-0 (50.6%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
PIT Advantage
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
SEA
PIT
SEA
ML
52% 82-77
50% 81-81
52% 85-78
52% 85-77
ATS
54% 86-73
60% 98-64
50% 81-82
59% 95-67
TTL
47% 72-81-6
56% 85-67-10
50% 79-78-6
53% 81-71-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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