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NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

47-31  |  Road

4
FINAL
Tue, Jun 23 • 6:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

34-45  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
David Bednar
STARTING PITCHER

David Bednar

#53 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kyle Finnegan
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Finnegan

#67 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
David Bednar None-None 3.38 -- 1.1 --
Kyle Finnegan None-None 1.95 -- 1.1 4
None-None W-L None-None
3.38 ERA Ldr 1.95
-- WHIP --
1.1 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.1
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
YANKEES
46%
📊
TIGERS
54%
YANKEES --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 68%
Under 0 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Detroit)
YankeesNYY (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Yankees Cover

46.0%

Tigers Cover

54.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around DET -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

NYY By 1-2 runs

17.7%

NYY By 3-4 runs

12.4%

DET By 1-2 runs

19.0%

DET By 3-4 runs

14.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.8
NEW YORK
5.2
DETROIT
Simulated Score
4
NEW YORK
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Tigers Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
A
Sim Tigers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
A
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 1, 2026 DET @ NYY 6 - 2
Jun 30, 2026 DET @ NYY 9 - 3
Jun 29, 2026 DET @ NYY 7 - 3
Jun 24, 2026 NYY @ DET 4 - 2
Jun 23, 2026 NYY @ DET 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYY
vs
Detroit DET
1
Games Played
▲ 162
9.00 ▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.375 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.447 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.594 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
1.041 ▲
OPS
.720
2
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +8950.0% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs New York: 2.0
Total Bases (L5) +16.6% more
Detroit: 14.8 vs New York: 12.7
Hits (L5) +13.8% more
Detroit: 8.9 vs New York: 7.8
Errors (L5) +77.7% more
New York: 1.4 vs Detroit: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYY Score 4.8 4
DET Score 5.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.9 / 7.8 8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.3 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 8.8 13.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 14.8 / 12.7 10.0 / 14.0
Walks 2.0 / 2.7 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
83%MONEY17%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYY
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
NYY
DET
NYY
ML
54% 86-73
47% 76-85
54% 87-73
52% 85-77
ATS
64% 101-58
59% 95-66
57% 91-69
53% 86-76
TTL
46% 69-81-9
53% 81-73-7
46% 69-81-10
53% 82-72-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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