HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
38-43 | Road
9
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
39-40 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Rogers
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hader | None-None | 1.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Tyler Rogers | None-None | 1.91 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.00 Ldr
ERA
1.91
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
46%
BLUE JAYS
54%
ASTROS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
63%
Under 0
37%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
HOU By 1-2 runs
17.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
12.4%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.0%
TOR By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
4.9
HOUSTON
Toronto
5.3
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
65% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
👑 Top Selection
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
B
Sim
Astros (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.2
B
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 5, 2026
TOR @ HOU
5 - 4
Aug 4, 2026
TOR @ HOU
2 - 7
Aug 3, 2026
TOR @ HOU
3 - 1
Jun 24, 2026
HOU @ TOR
3 - 1
Jun 23, 2026
HOU @ TOR
9 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Toronto
TOR
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.00
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.381
.582
OPS
▲
.692
4
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+3700.0% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Walks (L5)
+145.1% more
Toronto: 6.3
vs
Houston: 2.6
Home Runs (L5)
+60.0% more
Toronto: 1.4
vs
Houston: 0.8
Errors (L5)
+43.0% more
Toronto: 0.8
vs
Houston: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
4.9
9
TOR Score
5.3
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.0 / 6.8
13.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 0.8
2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 10.0
10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.5 / 10.2
22.0 / 29.0
Walks
6.3 / 2.6
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
HOU
TOR
HOU
ML
46%
74-87
50%
81-82
50%
80-80
47%
77-87
ATS
56%
90-71
56%
91-72
49%
79-81
55%
90-74
TTL
51%
80-76-5
45%
70-84-9
45%
70-85-5
45%
69-86-9
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