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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

38-43  |  Road

1
FINAL
Tue, Jun 23 • 9:38 PM ET
Angel Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

ANGELSLAA

33-48  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Albert Suarez
STARTING PITCHER

Albert Suarez

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sam Bachman
STARTING PITCHER

Sam Bachman

#40 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Albert Suarez None-None 4.01 -- 3.0 3
Sam Bachman None-None 3.53 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.01 ERA Ldr 3.53
-- WHIP --
3.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
3 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
57%
📊
ANGELS
43%
ORIOLES --
ANGELS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 57%
Under 0 43%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.7
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 AngelsLAA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

43.1%

Angels Cover

56.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAA +0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAA)

BAL By 1-2 runs

19.4%

BAL By 3-4 runs

15.5%

LAA By 1-2 runs

17.0%

LAA By 3-4 runs

11.5%

AI Model Projected Score
5.2
BALTIMORE
4.5
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
BALTIMORE
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Orioles Loss
57% Win Prob
C
Sim Angels Win
65% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +0.7
C
Sim Angels (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.7
C
Sim o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 6, 2026 LAA @ BAL 4 - 1
Aug 5, 2026 LAA @ BAL 2 - 5
Aug 4, 2026 LAA @ BAL 1 - 3
Jun 24, 2026 BAL @ LAA 6 - 7
Jun 23, 2026 BAL @ LAA 1 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Los Angeles LAA
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.04
.234
Avg (AVG)
.234
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.369
.711 ▲
OPS
.679
199 ▲
Home Runs
154
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +22.6% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Los Angeles: 154.0
Total Bases (L5) +12.3% more
Baltimore: 18.3 vs Los Angeles: 16.1
Runs per Game (Season) +9.4% more
Baltimore: 4.5 vs Los Angeles: 4.0
Hits (L5) +9.3% more
Baltimore: 10.0 vs Los Angeles: 9.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 5.2 1
LAA Score 4.5 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.1 / 10.0 8.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.9 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 9.0 13.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 16.1 / 18.3 12.0 / 3.0
Walks 3.3 / 2.7 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
86%MONEY14%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
94%MONEY6%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
LAA
62-100-0 (38.3%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
LAA
(50.6%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
LAA
71-88-3
O: 44.7% / U: 55.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAA
BAL
LAA
BAL
ML
59% 96-66
53% 83-73
55% 89-73
57% 90-69
ATS
60% 97-65
61% 95-60-1
51% 82-80
57% 90-68-1
TTL
53% 83-74-5
54% 81-70-5
52% 82-75-5
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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