CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
41-39 | Road
1
CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
41-37 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Colin Holderman
#35 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Newcomb
#15 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Holderman | None-None | 1.61 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Sean Newcomb | None-None | 2.44 | -- | 2.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.61 Ldr
ERA
2.44
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
53%
WHITE SOX
47%
GUARDIANS
--
WHITE SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
71%
Under 0
29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+0.3
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHW +0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)
CLE By 1-2 runs
18.9%
CLE By 3-4 runs
14.4%
CHW By 1-2 runs
17.9%
CHW By 3-4 runs
12.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
4.8
CLEVELAND
Chicago
4.5
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Chicago
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
White Sox
Win
63% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
White Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +0.3
B
Sim
White Sox (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
👑 Top Selection
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.3
A
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 7, 2026
CLE @ CHW
9 - 3
Oct 5, 2026
CHW @ CLE
4 - 3
Oct 3, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 0
Sep 16, 2026
CHW @ CLE
3 - 6
Sep 15, 2026
CHW @ CLE
6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
Chicago
CHW
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.324
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.415
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.412
.696
OPS
▲
.826
162
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.4% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+77.4% more
Chicago: 4.4
vs
Cleveland: 2.5
Home Runs (L5)
+47.0% more
Chicago: 1.3
vs
Cleveland: 0.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+43.2% more
Chicago: 6.0
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
4.8
1
CHW Score
4.5
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.5 / 6.9
3.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.1 / 9.6
8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 10.7
7.0 / 11.0
Walks
4.4 / 2.5
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
CLE
CHW
CLE
ML
49%
81-86
54%
87-74
56%
94-73
49%
80-82
ATS
59%
99-68
58%
93-68
56%
93-74
59%
95-67
TTL
58%
96-69-2
55%
88-71-2
51%
84-81-2
43%
69-90-2
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